Risk assessment of Giardia in rivers of southern China based on continuous monitoring

The occurrence and risks of Giardia in China have been unclear to date, which has made it difficult to properly manage source water as well as to create reasonable drinking water standards. The levels of Giardia in river networks of several cities in Zhejiang Province, China were found to be in the range of 0-5 oocysts/10 L in the rainy season in 2008. The mortality due to Giardia infection for people in this region was calculated to be from 0 to 1.95 × 10^-8 persons using a conditional probability equation. Based on multiple unboiled water intake routes, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to Giardia infection for people who consumed conventionally treated water was 0.625 (95% CI: 0.137-2.05) per 10⁵ persons, with the symptom of hospitalization making the highest contribution to total DALYs (0.56 per 10⁵ persons; 95% CI: 0.122-1.84). The DALYs decreased to 0.425 (95% CI: 0.137-2.05) per 10⁵ persons per year for those consuming water treated with advanced technology. These values were lower than the acceptable risk (1.97 × 10^-5 DALYs per year). This study revealed the risk of Giardia infection to the people in river networks of Zhejiang Province for the first time, and provides a method to evaluate the risk of Giardia infection. The results are useful for the modification of drinking water quality standards based on cost-benefit analysis.     

Sustainable cities: do political factors determine the quality of life?

The implementation of urban sustainability practices is affected by political obstacles, and diverse political ideologies may defend different city models. Sustainable policy design could also be affected by several factors that cause the deflection of resources initially allocated to other groups that are contrary to the concerns pursued and have the power to veto sustainable plans by exerting pressure on the party in power.In this sense, the aim of this paper is to show the impact that political factors have on cities’ sustainability, and the effect of both on cities’ economic development. To do so, we used the 78 Spanish cities with a population over 100,000 studied by MERCO (Spanish Corporate Reputation Monitor) as regards their levels of sustainability for the fiscal years 2008 and 2009. Both relationships have been tested empirically through two dependence models using linear regression techniques.The results obtained show that political competition improves cities’ sustainability, while a leftist ideology has an inverse impact. On the other hand, a significant direct relationship has been observed between urban sustainability and municipal economic activity.     

某型橡胶减振器的加速老化寿命试验研究

目的对某型橡胶减振器进行加速老化试验研究,利用试验数据评估得到产品的贮存寿命。方法采用恒定应力加速试验方法,分四个温度应力量级,对橡胶减振器的压缩永久变形试样开展加速老化试验,获得试样的退化数据。对试验数据进行分析计算,评估得到橡胶减振器材料的贮存寿命。结果通过评估,得到该型减振器材料的贮存寿命能够达到12.36年,置信度大于0.99。同时利用减振器真实产品的老化试验验证了寿命评估结果。结论以温度为敏感应力,采用恒定应力加速贮存试验方法,可以在短时间内快速获得置信度较高的材料常温贮存寿命,结合真实产品验证评估结果,为类似产品的寿命预测提供支撑。     

三生共赢:可持续发展的根本目标与行为准则

明确可持续发展的行为目标。制定相应的评价准则，是可持续发展思想从理念探讨向实践操作延伸的必由之路，也是进行社会行为选择的依据。在系统分析生活、生产与生态之间的关系后，提出应将“生活水平不断提高，生产能力不断增长和生态环境不断改善”(简称“三生共赢”)作为可持续发展的行为目标和评价准则，并从理论上对这一命题进行了阐述。     

A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: During the last decades ecological conditions in West Africa have dramatically changed. Very evident is the climate change, which has resulted in a southward shift of the climate zones, e.g. a spread of the desert (Sahara) into the Sahelian zone. After the drought period of the early 1970s and 1980s, livestock density increased resulting in an intensification of grazing pressure. This anthropogenous phenomenon leads to similar landscape changes as those caused by the climate. Only very few investigations exist on vegetation dynamics, climate changes and land use changes for the Sudanian zone. The paper presents data on changes of precipitation, of land use, of the geographical range of species, and of the composition of the flora, which have to be regarded as proofs of the sahelisation of large areas of the Sudanian zone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Area of investigation: Burkina Faso. Precipitation data analysis: precipitation data from 67 stations; time series analysis and geo-statistical spatial interpolation. Analysis of land use change: Landsat satellite MSS and ETM+ data, acquired for two different dates between 1972 and 2001 analyzed by the software ERDAS/IMAGINE version 8.6 and ArcView 3.2 with the Spatial Analyst extension. Intensive ground truthing (160 training areas). Inventory of the flora: based on the data of the Herbarium Senckenbergianum (FR) in Frankfurt, Germany, and of the herbarium of the university of Ouagadougou (OUA), Burkina Faso, as well as on various investigations on the vegetation of Burkina Faso carried out in the years 1990 to 2005 by the team of the senior author. Life form analysis of the flora: based on the inventory of permanent plots. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Precipitation: Remarkable latitudinal shift of isohyets towards the South translates to a general reduction of average rainfall in great parts of the country. The last decade (1990-1999) shows some improvement, however, the more humid conditions of the 1950's and 1960's are not yet established again. Landcover change: In the study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. CONCLUSION: Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many parts of the Sudanian zone of West Africa sahelisation phenomena will remain and even increase independently from the reestablishment of the more humid climate conditions of the 1950ies. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: In order to maintain some parts of the characteristic Sudanian landscape with its characteristic flora and vegetation, the number and size of protected areas should be augmented. For all protected areas it has to be ensured, that protection is reality, i.e. respected an understood by local people, not only fiction. As long as the enlargement of intensively used areas continues the sahelisation of flora, vegetation and landscape will continue too.     

Morphogenesis of the Procumbent Life Form in Siberian Stone Pine at the Timberline in the Western Sayan Mountains

The morphology and development are described for Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibiricaDu Tour) growing at the timberline in the Western Sayan Mountains. Throughout ontogeny, these plants have a short stem trailing in an approximately horizontal direction. Maximal longevity and viability are characteristic of basal branches, which are able to root and produce vegetative generations. This allows these plants to be classified with the procumbent tree life form, in which the clones of most adaptive genotypes not only survive under extreme environmental conditions, but can also reproduce vegetatively.     

Re-emphasizing sustainable development — The concept of ‘Evolutionability’ On living chances, equity, and good heritage

The principle of sustainable development is now 15-year-old. There are a lot of definitions and models for its explanation — ranging from triangles and prisms to eggs — but still its sense is diffuse. Moreover, important aspects like equity are not sufficiently taken into account.The following article takes a critical look on sustainable development. It shows logical, systemic, philosophic and ethic reasons for the re-development of substantial parts of the principle of sustainability. Based on the proposed Principle of Good Heritage it provides a rough outline of a future Concept of Evolutionability, comprising a first tentative for a definition of evolutionable development, aiming at achieving a more appropriate and more workable mainstream view of sustainability.Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

我国小康生活水平的测量尺度与标准

本文在分析我国经济、社会发展规划、目标和现代化进程的基础上,借鉴国际上的通用标准,并结合我国国情,提出了我国小康生活水平的测量标准,建立了由20个指标构成的小康生活水平指标体系。     

矿山清洁生产示范研究

矿山清洁生产具有双重性。矿山生命周期决定了矿山清洁生产体系的特殊性。矿山清洁生产体系是由培训体系、生命周期清洁生产体系和监合与审核体系构成的一个系统，生命周期清洁生产体系包括从资源勘探-规划设计-开发-闭矿-后续土地利用与监测的各个阶段。与其他行业相比，矿山清洁生产难度大且明显滞后，开展矿山清洁生产示范研究势在必行。